Milwaukee Brewers Defy Payroll Gap, Reach NLCS with Speed‑First Model

When Milwaukee Brewers clinched a 97‑win season on a $143 million payroll, the baseball world sat up. The club not only topped the National League in outs above average for three straight years, it also earned a spot in the National League Championship SeriesAmerican Family Field, pitting a small‑market team against the trophy‑laden Los Angeles Dodgers. Why does this matter? Because Milwaukee’s success challenges the long‑standing belief that deep pockets are the only path to postseason relevance.

How the Payroll Gap Shapes Strategy

The Brewers’ $143 million budget sits well below the league median and is dwarfed by the Dodgers’ roughly $371 million payroll – a difference of $228,625,532 to be exact. Even pitcher Blake Snell earns a 2025 salary that exceeds the combined compensation of Milwaukee’s entire infield. Rather than chase big‑name free agents, general manager Matt Arnold has leaned into cost‑controlled talent, scouting players who slipped through other clubs’ nets. The result: a roster that ranks second in stolen bases, third in runs scored, and first in defensive efficiency metrics.

Speed, Defense and Small‑Ball: The Brewers’ Playbook

Rule changes introduced in 2023 – the ban on defensive shifts, larger bases, and limits on pick‑off moves – gave teams an opportunity to rewrite the tactical script. Milwaukee’s analytics department spent months modeling how these shifts would affect run expectancy. Their conclusion? A faster, defensively versatile squad could exploit the new landscape far better than a power‑heavy lineup. The team’s emphasis on “small‑ball” – stealing bases, advancing runners, and manufacturing runs – has paid dividends, especially in close games where a single stolen base often tipped the balance.

Key Figures Behind the Model

Manager Pat Murphy, promoted from bench coach in November 2023 after Craig Counsell’s departure, describes his group as “a bunch of Average Joes” – not because they lack talent, but because they eschew superstar contracts for hungry, under‑the‑radar players. In July 2025, after sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles, Murphy clarified that the phrase reflected the club’s construction philosophy, not on‑field performance.

Outfielder Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, remains a vocal advocate. "We’ve stacked win after win, built momentum and an identity,” Yelich said after the regular season. “Play the whole game, create pressure, and you’ll see what happens.”

Shortstop Brice Turang, 24, is the season’s breakout star. ESPN’s September 25 analysis highlighted his defensive range and baserunning savvy as a microcosm of the Brewers’ broader success.

NLCS Showdown: Brewers vs. Dodgers

The National League Championship Series kicks off on October 14, 2025, at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Dodgers, sporting a roster that includes slugger Shohei Ohtani, have struggled offensively in the postseason – Ohtani has just four hits in 27 at‑bats, a .148 average. Their bullpen shows signs of fatigue, making Milwaukee’s aggressive baserunning and defensive depth a tantalizing matchup.

While the Brewers have never won a playoff series since their 2018 NLCS run, the team believes its identity can finally translate into October success. Arnold emphasizes that “identifying undervalued talent – players who fell out of favor elsewhere – gives us a competitive edge that money can’t always buy.”

Implications for Small‑Market Teams

If Milwaukee clinches the NLCS, it would send a clear signal to other clubs in cities under two million residents: strategic roster construction can offset financial disparity. The Brewers’ model underlines the growing importance of analytics, player development, and flexible coaching philosophies in the modern game.

• Payroll: $143 M vs. Dodgers’ $371 M
• Wins (2025): 97 (3rd in MLB)
• Stolen bases rank: 2nd
• Outs above average (2023‑25): league leader
• Postseason series win: none since 2018