When Patrick Mahomes looked into the camera on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, and said, "I'm just not making the throws," it wasn’t just another postgame quote. It was the quiet collapse of a legend holding himself accountable — and the most honest moment in the Kansas City Chiefs’ season. The team’s 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on November 17 dropped them to 5-5, their first .500 record since 2018. And Mahomes, the three-time Super Bowl winner, didn’t point to injuries, bad calls, or a leaky offensive line. He pointed at himself. "Guys are getting open and giving me chances to make plays down the field," he said at the Kansas City Chiefs practice facility. "I just gotta give them chances to make plays."
What’s Really Going Wrong?
The numbers don’t lie. According to Pro Football Reference, Mahomes’ on-target throw rate this season sits at 74.7% — his lowest since the metric began tracking in 2019. That’s a full 6.3 percentage points below his 2022 MVP peak of 81.0%. He’s now 22nd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in that category. In the Broncos game alone, he overshot Xavier Worthy on a wide-open deep route in the first quarter. He missed Noah Gray on a crossing pattern that would’ve been a touchdown. And he threw behind Tyquan Thornton on a seam route that could’ve broken the game open. Yet here’s the twist: Mahomes is still fourth in passing yards (2,625) and third in Total QBR (72.7). He’s tied for seventh in touchdown passes. His arm strength? Still elite. His mobility? Still dangerous. But precision — the thing that turned him from a flashy rookie into a generational talent — has vanished.The Weight of Expectations
The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017. They’ve won 10 straight AFC West titles. But this year, they’ve lost to every team that currently has a realistic shot at the playoffs: the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, and now the Denver Broncos. All four are playoff-caliber. All four exposed the same flaw: when the pressure rises, Mahomes doesn’t deliver. Head coach Andy Reid, who’s led the team since 2013, hasn’t changed the scheme. The plays are there. The routes are clean. The receivers are open. It’s the delivery. And that’s on Mahomes. "It’s not the play call," said one anonymous offensive assistant to ESPN. "It’s the timing. The ball’s just a half-step late. Or a foot high. It’s not the system. It’s the guy throwing it."Who’s Still Standing?
The Chiefs’ roster hasn’t collapsed. Rookie Xavier Worthy, the speedy 2024 first-round pick from Texas, is averaging 17.3 yards per catch. Tight end Noah Gray is on pace for 800 yards. The offensive line, while banged up, hasn’t been the issue — Mahomes has had over 2.8 seconds to throw on average, per Pro Football Focus. The problem isn’t protection. It’s perception. The ball’s not finding its target. Even Mark Donovan, the team president, hasn’t publicly panicked. "We trust Patrick," he told reporters last week. "He’s been the heart of this franchise for a decade. We know he’ll find his way back."
Can They Still Make the Playoffs?
The math is brutal. At 5-5, the Chiefs are the 9th seed in the AFC. They need to win six of their final seven games just to reach 11-6 — and even then, they’d miss the division title for the first time since 2013. But here’s the silver lining: their remaining schedule is the 12th easiest in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. They’ve got the Dallas Cowboys (428.3 yards allowed per game, worst in the NFL) at Arrowhead Stadium on November 28. Then the Houston Texans at home. Then back to SoFi Stadium for a rematch with the Los Angeles Chargers. Arrowhead Addict, the Chiefs’ most trusted fan site, predicts wins in all three of those games. If they take care of business against the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans — and get a little help from the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts — they could sneak in as a Wild Card.What’s Next?
Mahomes has never had a season like this. Not in his seven years as a starter. Not even in 2020, when he missed three games with a sprained ankle. This is different. It’s mental. It’s mechanical. It’s both. He’s been known to go silent for days after losses — not to sulk, but to relearn. To rewire. To feel the ball again. The Chiefs’ offense is built on timing. On rhythm. On trust. And right now, that trust is fraying — not because the players aren’t good, but because the man at the center isn’t delivering. The next four weeks will define whether this is a blip… or the beginning of the end of an era.
Behind the Numbers: Mahomes’ Accuracy Decline
- 2022 (MVP season): 81.0% on-target throws - 2023: 76.5% - 2024: 78.2% - 2025 (through Week 11): 74.7% — lowest since 2019 He’s thrown 12 interceptions this season — up from 8 in 2024. His yards per attempt (7.8) is his lowest since 2019. The deep ball (20+ yards) has been his signature. This year, he’s completing just 39% of those attempts — down from 51% in 2023.Frequently Asked Questions
How does this affect the Chiefs’ playoff chances?
At 5-5 and holding the 9th seed in the AFC, the Chiefs need to win at least six of their final seven games to reach 11-6 — the minimum likely to earn a Wild Card spot. Their remaining schedule is the 12th easiest in the NFL, giving them a realistic path. But they must win at least three games against teams with winning records, including the Chargers and Titans. A 10-7 finish would likely leave them out.
Why is Mahomes struggling now, after years of dominance?
There’s no single injury, but fatigue, defensive adjustments, and subtle mechanical drift are likely factors. Opponents are playing more zone coverage, forcing Mahomes to make quicker decisions. His footwork has tightened under pressure, and his release is slightly delayed — enough to turn open throws into incompletions. He’s also dealing with the mental weight of maintaining legacy expectations.
Is Andy Reid changing the offense to help Mahomes?
Not significantly. Reid is sticking to his core principles: quick passes, motion, and pre-snap deception. But he’s added more screen passes and check-downs to reduce high-risk throws. The playbook hasn’t changed — the execution has. The coaching staff is now focusing on film sessions with Mahomes to isolate timing errors, not scheme fixes.
Could the Chiefs trade for a backup quarterback?
Unlikely. The Chiefs have no cap space, and their backup, Nathan Peterman, is a practice squad veteran. More importantly, the front office believes in Mahomes’ ability to rebound. Trading for a starter would signal panic — and a loss of faith in their franchise player, which they’re not ready to do.
How does this compare to other great QBs who had slumps?
Tom Brady’s 2019 season saw a similar drop in completion rate after his 2018 MVP year. Peyton Manning struggled in 2014 after his 2013 record-setting campaign. Both rebounded with adjustments — not new schemes, but renewed focus on fundamentals. Mahomes is in the same boat: elite talent, temporary mechanical drift. The difference? He’s younger, and the stakes are higher.
What’s the biggest game left on the schedule?
November 28 against the Dallas Cowboys at Arrowhead Stadium. Dallas has the league’s worst defense, but their secondary is aggressive — perfect for testing Mahomes’ timing. A win here would ease pressure, restore confidence, and make the rest of the schedule manageable. A loss? The season could unravel.
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